An Actuarial Point of ViewShane Chalke, a distinguished actuary with decades of experience, shares his views on the facts about COVID transmission and mortality”. |
COVID Deaths Continue Rapid FallOn March 8th, the CDC reported 81,806 new cases for the state of Missouri. This was totaled into the national numbers, and you’ve all seen the large bump in daily new cases that day in the news. However, it obviously makes no sense. MO has reported less than 600,000 total cases since the inception of COVID tracking. |
COVID Deaths Falling RapidlyThis will be my final report with the various state details, as the COVID Tracking Project (my most reliable data source) closed shop yesterday. I’ll continue national-level reporting, and maybe continue to track North Carolina (my home state), and keep an eye on any states not keeping with the national trend. |
Normal Life by April?By April, COVID will no longer be the main driver in society as it has been over the past year. As I said in December – “After springtime, we’ll still see breakouts in certain communities based on vaccine acceptance, but it will be even more geographically localized than it is now, and these clusters will burn out quickly.” |
Other News and Views |
| Around the NFL All 77 false-positive COVID-19 tests come back negative upon reruns |
| Mississippi church fighting coronavirus restrictions burned to the ground |
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Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world, is populated very densely, and has a very high number of visitors going to and from China. Yet the number of deaths this year in Japan have actually been, overall, decreasing, showing no impact at all from COVID. |
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Hertz files for U.S. bankruptcy protection as car rentals evaporate in pandemic A large portion of Hertz’s revenue comes from car rentals at airports, which have all but evaporated as potential customers eschew plane travel. |
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Hospitals are not overwhelmed; most of us will be exposed anyway since we can’t sequester until there’s a vax; and we know which groups need protection from worst outcomes. Is the public health benefit from broad lockdowns at this point worth such extreme damage to livelihoods? Lloyd Blankfein on Twitter |
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New coronavirus cases across the world jump by the most ever in a single day, WHO says Of course! More tests equal more cases! |
LOCKDOWN KILLS THE POORIf you think the worldwide lockdown is such a wise thing, you should read this article about suicides in Thailand, one of many developing countries where the poor are suffering terribly to keep richer old people alive. |
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Commentary and Opinion from John F. GroomJohn F. Groom is the founder of Groom Ventures and DailyOutrage.com |
The Age of Stupid, Irrational FearWhy is this beach in Bali almost empty? This recent picture was taken at Legian Beach, normally crowded during the peak of the tourist season. Is it because COVID is such a danger in Indonesia? No, a relatively tiny number of people have died of COVID in Indonesia, far fewer than die in car accidents, from heart disease, cancer, or any number of causes. |
Travel – 27% Normal Volumes at Peak of Vacation SeasonThe most recent data available is for July 27th, when almost exactly 700,000 people passed through TSA checkpoints to get a flight. That’s a nice improvement from June 11, but still down 73% from the same day last year. So very, very far from normalcy, despite most restrictions having been lifted across the US. |
How to Really Save LivesWorldwide COVID has killed less than 500,000 people in 2020, while preventable noncommunicable diseases kill around 38 million people every year. While the entire world has shut down to fight COVID, according to this study almost 100 million deaths could be avoided worldwide over the next 25 years by doing 3 fairly simple things: |
Air Travel – A Great Gauge of US RecoveryThere’s a simple, easy way to figure out to what degree America is returning to normal after the COVID lockdowns are lifted. In March of this year, the TSA began publishing a list of passenger traffic at airports, with the corresponding day in 2019, one year before. |
